MARKET SUMMARY
The Indian stock market is expected to open flat to marginally negative on the final trading day of 2025, with GIFT Nifty indicating a loss of 34 points (0.13%). On December 30, after a fourth consecutive day of decline, the Nifty 50 closed flat with a negative bias following the monthly F&O expiry. While strong November IIP data, which reached a 25-month high of 6.7%, provided domestic support, global weakness from US market selloffs and geopolitical concerns are affecting sentiment. Traders should watch for a potential bounce-back if the index confirms support above the psychological 26,000 level.
KEY DRIVERS
– Global headwinds are impacting the market, as US markets closed sharply lower. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have broken below key technical levels amid concerns over Bank of Japan rate hikes and uncertainties surrounding a Russia-Ukraine peace deal.
– Domestic strength is evident from the November IIP data, which at 6.7% signals improving industrial growth and positive indicators for December quarter earnings.
– Options positioning shows maximum Put open interest concentrated at the 26,000 strike with 48.47 lakh contracts, making it a critical support level for short-term trading.
– Year-end liquidity is expected to be reduced, with monthly F&O expiry completed and lower trading volumes anticipated on the final session of the year.
SECTORS TO WATCH
Bank Nifty has shown improving sentiment with a bullish engulfing-type pattern and support at an upward-sloping trendline. Resistance at the 59,500 strike with 14.95 lakh contracts is key. The Nifty 50 remains under pressure, but there is upside potential toward 26,100–26,300 if support at 26,000 holds.
EVENTS
There are no major domestic announcements scheduled. The focus remains on global market movements and crude oil price action.
RISKS
– Persistent bearish momentum is a concern as the RSI is below the 50 mark and the index is trading below short-term moving averages, signaling caution despite support formation.
– Global uncertainty, including geopolitical tensions and central bank policy shifts, could trigger unexpected selloffs in early Asian trading.
CLOSING NOTE
There is cautious optimism on support confirmation, with 26,000 being the make-or-break level for a year-end bounce.